Detailed Analysis of the Golden Boot Race: Messi Surpasses Mbappe with 8 Goals and 4 Assists to 8 Goals and 3 Assists, Who Will Prevail in the Final Match

Detailed Analysis of the Golden Boot Race: Messi Surpasses Mbappe with 8 Goals and 4 Assists to 8 Goals and 3 Assists, Who Will Prevail in the Final Match
Korazone football

By Korazone football

Jul 17, 2026

The countdown to the 2026 World Cup has begun, with only the last two matches remaining. The Golden Boot race between Messi and Mbappe has intensified, as both players did not score in the semifinals. However, Messi provided 2 assists to help Argentina come back to defeat England 2-1 and advance to the final, aiming to become the first team to defend the title in 64 years, while Mbappe could not prevent France from losing 0-2 to Spain and missing the final. Currently, Messi leads with 8 goals and 4 assists, surpassing Mbappe's 8 goals and 3 assists. In the final match, it remains uncertain who will come out on top and ultimately win the Golden Boot.

World Cup Final Matchup & Schedule

Messi has scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists in this World Cup:

1. Group Stage

Group Stage Match 1: Argentina 3-0 Algeria

17 minutes: De Paul's through ball, Messi scores from outside the box.

60 minutes: Scores from close range in the box.

76 minutes: Scores with a long-range shot after receiving a pass from Gonzalez.

Group Stage Match 2: Argentina 2-0 Austria

39 minutes: Scores with a shot in the box, surpassing Klose to become the all-time World Cup top scorer with 17 goals.

82 minutes: Scores with a close-range rebound, bringing his total World Cup goals to 18.

In this match, Messi missed a penalty in the 7th minute.

Group Stage Match 3: Jordan 1-3 Argentina

80 minutes: Scores from a direct free kick that goes over the wall, bringing his total World Cup goals to 19.

2. Knockout Stage

Round of 16: Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde

First half of extra time: Scores with a low shot through the middle, giving his team the lead.

Quarterfinals: Argentina 3-2 Egypt

Scores with a shot in the box during regular time.

Semifinals: England 1-2 Argentina

No goals, but provides 2 key assists.

Mbappe has scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists in this World Cup, ranking second:

1. Group Stage

Group Stage Match 1: France 3-1 Senegal

66 minutes: Olise's through ball, Mbappe scores with a one-on-one shot.

90 minutes: Scores with a long-range shot from outside the box to secure the win.

After this match, he surpassed Giroud to become France's all-time World Cup top scorer.

Group Stage Match 2: France 3-0 Iraq

14 minutes: Scores with a low shot from the wing into the far corner.

54 minutes: Scores with a close-range tap-in to extend the lead.

Group Stage Match 3: Norway 1-4 France

No goals, but provides 2 assists.

2. Knockout Stage

Round of 16: France 3-0 Sweden

45 minutes of first-half stoppage time: Scores with a powerful shot cutting in from the left side of the box.

74 minutes: Scores calmly after receiving a through ball from a teammate.

Quarterfinals: France 2-0 Paraguay

70 minutes penalty: After being fouled, he takes and scores the penalty, the only goal of the match.

Quarterfinals: France 2-0 Morocco

60 minutes: Misses a penalty in the first half, scores a stunning long-range shot from outside the box in the second half; 6 minutes later, he assists Dembele to secure the win, bringing his total assists in this World Cup to 3.

Semifinals: France 0-2 Spain

No shots on target, no goals, no assists throughout the match.

Messi temporarily surpasses Mbappe to take the lead based on assists

Messi has participated in 12 goals for Argentina in this World Cup, scoring 8 goals and providing 4 assists in 7 matches, accounting for over 60% of Argentina's total goals. Although Messi did not score against England in the semifinals, his 2 assists allowed him to surpass Mbappe 4-3 based on assists, giving him the initiative to win the Golden Boot.

In contrast, Mbappe has also scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists in 7 matches, matching Messi's goal count but trailing by 1 assist.

Since the 2010 World Cup, the Golden Boot cannot be shared; there must be a single winner. According to the Golden Boot rules, if two players have the same number of goals, the number of assists is compared. If the number of assists is also the same, the time on the pitch is compared, with the player who has played less time winning the Golden Boot.

Currently, both Messi and Mbappe have scored 8 goals, but Messi has taken the lead in assists with 4-3 over Mbappe, temporarily placing him at the top of the Golden Boot standings.

The final match will determine who will win the Golden Boot between Messi and Mbappe

Both Messi and Mbappe have one last match remaining in this World Cup, where they will compete for the Golden Boot.

July 18: Third Place Playoff France vs England

July 19: Championship Match Argentina vs Spain

Both players have only one match left in this World Cup, but Mbappe's third-place playoff will kick off first on July 18. Since the third-place playoff is likely to be a high-scoring affair, Mbappe may have a good opportunity to score. As for the championship match, the clash between Argentina and Spain will likely focus on defense, and the number of goals scored may be limited, which could impact Messi's chances for the Golden Boot.

Mbappe needs to score one more goal than Messi to overtake him. Therefore, if both Mbappe and Messi score in the final match, Mbappe needs to score one more goal than Messi. If in the final match, neither scores, and Mbappe is behind by 1 assist, he needs to provide 2 more assists than Messi to make a comeback.

Haaland, with 7 goals, has already been eliminated and cannot compete, while Kane and Bellingham both have 6 goals and 1 assist, theoretically still having a chance to surpass Messi and Mbappe, but in reality, the difficulty is immense and the hope is slim.